Desktop Virtualization Market is a Wide Open Opportunity

Server virtualization’s current success pales in comparison to the potential of desktop virtualization. Ever-increasing numbers of client device types, the mobilization of the workforce, a new generation of employees with different expectations for corporate IT services, changing regulatory compliance mandates, tightened security policies, and a continued desire to increase operational efficiency all combine to make current desktop management a daunting task for even the best IT organizations.  Consequently, IT is mired in a constant battle to provide a high-quality, predictable, and productive computing environment all while attempting to control operational costs and hardware expenses. When end-users experience desktop or application stability, availability, or a response time issues, productivity slows to a crawl—and IT gets the blame.

As well-documented by ESG, desktop virtualization has the potential to bring about a fundamental change in end-user computing by:

• Exponentially improving IT’s ability to manage and maintain end-user computing environments
• Un-tethering the user from a single endpoint device
• Enabling and simplifying end-user self service
• Delivering a consistent user experience

Indeed, ESG’s research has found that an improved end-user experience is one of the key drivers of desktop virtualization deployments as employees can now enjoy a fresh,” out-of-the-box” experience every time they log on.  ESG has also talked to organizations whose end-users now enjoy faster application response times, significantly reduced logon times, and access to applications regardless of location or endpoint device all thanks to desktop virtualization.

Of course, improving the end-user experience is hardly the only reason to implement desktop virtualization.  ESG survey results, combined with qualitative interviews conducted with desktop virtualization early adopters, show the other top drivers of desktop virtualization to be:

• Security: Driven by compliance and corporate governance mandates, customers are using desktop virtualization models to lock down user configuration settings and protect all corporate data in one centralized location.
• Data protection: Few organizations currently have a comprehensive strategy for backing up all the data stored on end-user desktops and laptops.  Desktop virtualization enables more efficient and effective protection of this data by moving it from the endpoint to the data center.
• Cost optimization: The financial benefits of desktop virtualization can include extending endpoint refresh cycles, reducing IT labor requirements via streamlined desktop administration, and mitigating the risk of lost user productivity by enabling more consistent access to applications and data.

2010 Desktop Virtualization Trends

Driven by the aforementioned benefits, desktop virtualization deployments will have an increasing impact on data center operations, desktop support, security policies, service levels, and, ultimately, the way businesses deliver applications to their employees.  As such, ESG will be watching the following trends and developments in 2010. 

1. “VDI” gives way to “desktop virtualization:” ESG believes that end-users must (and will) increasingly recognize that VDI (virtual desktop infrastructure) is one of many approaches grouped under the desktop virtualization umbrella. It may be part of an overall desktop virtualization initiative, but it’s becoming the only deployment method is highly unlikely. Application virtualization, profile virtualization, streamed OS, blade PCs, and client side hypervisor will all be considerations and likely used in a hybrid fashion to achieve overarching desktop virtualization goals. Technology vendors, system integrators, resellers, and customers focusing primarily on VDI will find themselves falling short when it comes to the overarching goals of desktop virtualization.
2. Increased market education efforts drive adoption: ESG expects to see a healthy uptick in desktop virtualization adoption in 2010 as vendors, resellers, and systems integrators strengthen their education programs and go-to-market offerings: technology is not going to be as much of a barrier as education and training will be. The potential impact desktop virtualization will have on existing deployments, data center infrastructure, and the end-user experience must be carefully considered from the very beginning, but the market currently has a shortage of desktop virtualization professionals and early adopters are still acquiring the experience, confidence, and knowledge that will help accelerate new deployments. New concepts such as BYOC (bring your own computer) will have to be proven in large scale implementations and align with technology expectations before becoming mainstream.
3. Solving the ROI calculation becomes critical: Over the past year, ESG has spoken to customers that have been able to justify desktop virtualization initiatives on the grounds of reduced or re-allocated IT staff, the ability to avoid building a new data center, and increased billable hours via improved employee efficiency. However, for a variety of reasons, many companies still struggle to calculate a favorable ROI for desktop virtualization. Favorable ROIs will come from early, proven, and well-documented implementations that result in reduced end-point hardware costs, reduced operational costs, and increased employee productivity—all with minimal impact to data center infrastructure. Be on the lookout as IBM Global Services, HP/EDS, Dell/ Perot, CSC, and Accenture pave the way for the market with “apples-to-apples” ROI models rather than relying on vendor-specific ROI tools designed to favorably highlight their own technologies.
4. End-users start to come around: End-users are resistant to change and moving from a traditional desktop computing model to a virtual desktop will no doubt make many uneasy. Setting appropriate expectations will therefore be an important part of any desktop virtualization deployment. Companies will have to align deployment efforts with an extremely high initial acceptance rate from end-users to gain the viral effect desired during massive deployments.  The good news?  The early returns from ESG’s discussions with desktop virtualization customers find that once end-users discover that their daily computing experience has not diminished—and, in many cases, has improved—they are quick to shed any misgivings.
5. Users and vendors become better at mapping solutions to specific workers: Successful desktop virtualization deployments will target the right classes of employees with a combination of solutions that match workers’ roles and responsibilities. This exercise should include a desktop readiness assessment, a technology proof of concept, and a staged rollout initiative. It will be common practice to deploy multiple technologies in the guise of a single desktop virtualization solution that includes—but is not limited to—user virtualization, application virtualization, and centrally shared operating system images that are managed separately and dynamically assembled at runtime.
6. Windows 7 acts as a desktop virtualization catalyst: The release of Windows 7 is creating an ideal launch pad for desktop virtualization. With Windows XP getting long in the tooth and most companies choosing to skip Vista altogether, Windows 7 is poised for success. Any company considering upgrading to Windows 7 is an ideal candidate for desktop virtualization because desktop virtualization can help further accelerate Windows 7 adoption, deliver incompatible applications, and turn what would be two projects into one.
7. Users, applications, and operating systems go their separate ways: Gone will be the days of managing and maintaining user settings, applications, and the operating system as a single unit. As desktop virtualization deployments evolve, these elements will be managed and maintained separately. This is one of the key value propositions of desktop virtualization: decoupling these components simplifies management, readies the business for large scale deployments, and maintains end-user personalization. In 2010, there will be increased technology innovation and acquisition in each of these areas to fill current gaps in technology and round out total solutions for the major vendors in the market.
8. Solution providers become critical: Citrix, Microsoft, and VMware may be at the top of the desktop virtualization pyramid, but they are unlikely to be where customers turn for end to end desktop virtualization strategies and solutions. ESG has seen businesses turning to companies with more vendor-neutral third-party expertise (such as Wyse, HP, IBM, and CSC) to guide purchasing decisions and strategic direction. Technology will, of course, continue to be a critical ingredient in the recipe, but ESG expects to see much more from the likes of Citrix, Microsoft, and VMware in the form of services and strategic delivery partnerships.  These technology, reseller, channel, and system integrator relationships will be key to success in 2010 and beyond.
   Figure 1. Vendor Alignment

   

9. Endpoint wars proliferate: When it comes to actual endpoint devices, the majority of desktop virtualization pilots and rollouts to date consist of repurposing existing desktop and laptop assets.  Thin clients and purpose-built endpoints are in for a pricing war against cost reductions in the laptop and desktop markets. Ultimately, endpoint devices will be tied tightly to the type of worker in question: task–oriented, or even knowledge, workers that are not mobile are good candidates for thin clients. A mobile workforce will stick with laptops or even netbooks. Also expect to see a surge in application use cases targeted at mobile devices. Ultimately, the smart phone will play a larger role and may one day even become the “only” endpoint device, possibly coupled with an external keyboard, mouse, and video display.
10. Client side hypervisors gain traction: Intel has been working with VMware and Citrix to develop a Type I hypervisor that executes on bare metal in much the same way a server side hypervisor operates. Expect to see products from both Citrix and VMware in the first half of 2010 that enable multiple user environments comprised of user settings, applications, and operating systems to be simultaneously run on a single piece of hardware (laptop or desktop). The ultimate goal of this technology is for it to be transparently shipped with the endpoint device. Look to see who Dell, HP, Wyse, Lenovo, and other Intel-based endpoint vendors choose to align with and when they plan to deliver. The client side hypervisor will be key to the successful adoption of mobile employees requiring offline access to their workspaces regardless of network connectivity.

The Bigger Truth

Laptop and desktop management occurs in the midst of constant chaos.  Users download the latest browser plug-in, add consumer hardware, and exchange confidential files as part of their everyday routines—much to IT’s dismay.  To support this activity, IT scrambles with help desk support, software patch installations, and configuration changes.  Given such a stream of endless activity, desktop virtualization has a compelling value proposition as IT infrastructure becomes less strategic and operational efficiency and business productivity take center stage.

Desktop virtualization initiatives will be lead by senior level IT professionals that see the benefits of desktop virtualization over the long run and can quickly identify immediate opportunities for success (see Figure 2).  In 2010, desktop virtualization pilots in the hundreds of users will be common, with early adopters pushing deployments to thousands and even tens of thousands. In all, 2010 will prove to be an important year for desktop virtualization as companies decide where to hang their hats and place significant bets on long term investment strategies aimed at reducing operational costs, driving down hardware purchases, and improving the end-user computing experience.